Earlier this year, the Q2 GDP readings reported the Canadian economy stood out globally. Despite battling inflation and a projection of 4-4% growth forecast for that period, Canada did fare better than others with a reported 3.3% growth pace. Do not anticipate a similar outlook for Q3 and Q4, however. The growth rate has slowed substantially across the nation and most economies are forecasted to tread water in 2023.
The Niagara region has also realized a slight boom thanks to an influx of businesses relocating to the area and the introduction of new businesses being started in the region. It is, however, important that we, as stakeholders, understand that while some of the data points to a good news story, the region and province must focus on creating conditions that support business access to the capital, markets, and talent that they need to sustain and grow.
Evolving over the past decade, Niagara’s shift in economic and social diversity has been fundamental to its success. Ontario’s economy has undergone substantial change as well, leading to increased global competition, technological disruption, and the need to transition to sustainable growth models. The outcome of these global trends will likely result in future changes to the way that businesses operate and how we plan for our future economy. To adapt to these changes and support businesses in the Niagara, it is essential that we understand current and future economic trends at a national and provincial levels, as well as local to Niagara.
Growth Priorities
The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe was created so that we can understand what our community might look like 10 to 25 years from now. What would be the impact on public transit if a new university was built? What type of housing should be considered to accommodate a changing population? Which industries will be emerging over the next decade? These questions provide insight into how we want to create communities where residents live close together and enjoy vibrant amenities. They also show us the importance of being aware of both immediate needs and long-term opportunities. As leaders, it's important to work together and think about how we can invest in infrastructure projects, increase trade between other jurisdictions, build partnerships with educational institutions, while creating opportunities for entrepreneurs who are eager to innovate. Individual municipalities will need to continue to explore partnering with larger cities as these could help companies grow and remain competitive in the global market.
The Population
Niagara is one of the fastest growing regions in Ontario with a population expected to increase by more than 600,000 people from now until 2041. The demand for lower priced properties continues to rise as people move away from Toronto and other large urban centres, creating a continued strain on supply. This forecasted growth will also create new challenges for public service, transportation infrastructure, and housing.
Labour Market
Changing rapidly over the last decade, jobs that have traditionally been filled by young people are now being taken up by older workers, who are either delaying retirement or coming out of retirement. This trend is expected to continue with an increased number of baby boomers retiring in the near future. In response, more youth employment programs need to be developed that focus on placement, retention, and career focused opportunities. Ontario will need to continue attracting international talent as immigrants will become a fundamental part of the labour force due to demographic changes within the province. It’s also important for businesses to attract a millennial workforce because they represent 46% of Canada’s population and this group represents a significant buying power. They are the most educated generation in Canadian history and enter the workforce with high expectations from employers. They often do not consider themselves traditional employees so may require flexible work arrangements to allow them time for community involvement and personal projects.
Major Industries
Home to many industries, including finance, tourism, food production, automotive parts manufacturing. Education and Healthcare represents the largest existing workforce in the region at 20% followed by Professional and Financial Services at 16%. Manufacturing and Hospitality also represent a strong 13% and 12% respectively, with and influx of technology and innovation companies putting roots in Niagara we anticipate continued growth throughout these emerging sectors.
With this being a municipal election year, the business community is eager to see plans that will promote business competitiveness. This includes addressing limiting factors such as outdated labour laws, poor transportation infrastructure, lack diversity in economic sectors, rising costs of living, and lack of skilled and accessible workforce.
Sources: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220831/dq220831a-eng.htm?HPA=1 | https://www.ontario.ca/document/place-grow-growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe | https://www.niagararegion.ca/2041/pdf/mcr-pic3-boards.pdf